Models for Forecasting Exchange Rates Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Models for Forecasting Exchange Rates - Essay Example is a function of sample size = N M = N/log N Schwartz criterion Consistent estimate of lag length Akaike lag length Minimum mean square prediction errors criterion of the dependent variable Similar to AR Weight (W) is assigned arbitrarily W = 0.95 Random Walk model Current spot rate is a predictor of the future spot rate; Basic model Requires no estimation With a drift parameter Mean monthly (logarithmic) exchange rate change These methods minimize criteria based on squared deviations; but it will be ineffective when the fluctuations in foreign exchange rates is unusual - and not as based on reasons established in various studies of fluctuations. Multivariate Time Series Models - Unconstrained Vector Auto regression (VAR).(1. MEESE, Richard A.; ROGOFF; Kenneth) Under VAR model, "contemporaneous value of each variable is regressed against lagged values of itself and all the other variables. The exchange rate equation is st = a i i s - 1 + a l z s t - 2 +"" a i n s f - n + BilXt - 1+ 2 X t - 2 +"" B'iX,- + ui where X,_j is a vector of the explanatory variables in the earlier equation, lagged jperiods." (1. MEESE, Richard A.; ROGOFF; Kenneth) VAR yields better forecasts since it does not restrict any variables and is better equipped to tackle the estimation problems that plague the structural models. Theoretical Models - Purchasing Power Parity Condition (PPP) , Sticky price monetary model of Dornbusch and Frankel , Balassa- Samuelson model based on productivity differentials, uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) (2. Cheung, Yin-Wong ; Chinn, Menzie D. ; Pascaul, Antonio Garcia) Model Assumption / Determination Purchasing Power Price indices...Richard A. MEESE, Kenneth ROGOFF) These methods minimize criteria based on squared deviations; but it will be ineffective when the fluctuations in foreign exchange rates is unusual - and not as based on reasons established in various studies of fluctuations. Theoretical Models - Purchasing Power Parity Condition (PPP) , Sticky price monetary model of Dornbusch and Frankel , Balassa- Samuelson model based on productivity differentials, uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) (2. Cheung, Yin-Wong ; Chinn, Menzie D. ; Pascaul, Antonio Garcia) "Let s be the log exchange rate, m and y be log domestic money stock and output and m* and y* be log foreign money stock and output. Following Mark, the money stock variables are constructed as four quarter moving averages, to eliminate seasonality. The fundamental value of the log exchange rate predicted by the monetary model is: f1 = (m-m*)-(y-y*)" "This model states that the nominal exchange rate is determined by home-foreign differentials in the monetary fundamentals used above as well as short-term interest rates, expected inflation rates, and cumulated current account balances." There is no evidence to suggest that exchange rate forecasts obtaine

Developed in Rome Essay Example for Free

Developed in Rome Essay In the time of the Renaissance, the arts became the primary preoccupation of the people. This is because of the pervading atmosphere of humanism, which promotes the accomplishments of the individual in a gamut of areas. The Renaissance as an era is divided into two parts: the early Renaissance which occurred in Florence and the high Renaissance that developed in Rome. How are these two phases different in terms of artistic styles? How are they alike? In the spirit of humanism that it advances, the art pieces reminiscent of the early Renaissance tried to put into canvass a very realistic depiction of the human form. Everything from proportion to color was considered to achieve the desired effect of realism. According to Noble, â€Å"artists developed new techniques to give paintings a more three-dimensional, life-like quality, and commonly studied human and animal anatomy in efforts to better understand their subjects (6). † These artists enjoyed the patronage of the wealthy, but they were not granted complete artistic freedom. Even though humanism was at its peak, the theme of the arts still leaned towards religion (Noble 6). The artists could only manifest freedom in terms of style and technique. The artistic pioneers of that time included Giotto di Bondone, Massacio, Lorenzo Ghiberti and Donatello. Giotto was the first important artist; it was his study of nature that rendered realistic facial expressions in his paintings (Noble 6), which served as the benchmark for the periods realistic techniques. Massacio is known for his Bible-inspired work, The Tribute Money. Ghiberti was the leading name in architecture; he designed and sculpted bronze doors, which was embellished with scenes from the Bible, for the Baptistry (Noble 6). In terms of sculpture, Donatello was the most important artist. He was responsible for David, â€Å"the first freestanding nude figure sculpted since the Roman era (Noble 6). † â€Å"If the early Renaissance artists paved the way for new techniques and styles in creating arts, it was the High Renaissance artists who mastered these said techniques (Noble 7),† bringing the creation of art to new heights. There might have been an improvement in method, but the subject matter remains the same. The arts of the High Renaissance was still controlled by the Church. However, the works of Leonardo began to manifest a strong leaning toward extreme humanism, which marked the beginning of change (Noble 7). In the High Renaissance, there were three dominant artists: Leonardo da Vinci, Michaelangelo Buonarroti and Raphael. Da Vincis works include the Mona Lisa, The Last Supper and Lady with an Ermine (â€Å"Artcyclopedia† 1). Michaelangelo, on the other hand, is famous for the artwork in the Sistine Chapel (â€Å"Artcyclopedia† 2). Raphael were responsible for such paintings as Saint George and the Dragon, and The Small Cowper Madonna (â€Å"Artcyclopedia† 3). In conclusion, the early Renaissance and High Renaissance only differed in two points: first, they occurred in different locations; second, while the early Renaissance artists created the techniques, the High Renaissance artists perfected them. Moreover, the two phases shared a similarity: the theme of religion despite the humanistic atmosphere. Works Cited Artcyclopedia. 2007. 17 Dec. 2007 http://www. artcyclopedia. com/history/high-renaissance. html. Noble, Matt. Sparknote on Italian Renaissance (1330-1550). 2006. SparkNotes LLC. 17 Dec. 2007 http://www. sparknotes. com/history/european/renaissance1/.

Monster: The Autobiography of an L.A. Gang Member Essay -- Biography B

Monster: The Autobiography of an L.A. Gang Member    "Where I came from, in order to be down you had to be 'in'" (Shakur, 226). This quote, taken from Sanyika Shakur's (aka Monster Kody Scott) Monster: The Autobiography of an L.A. Gang Member relates the mind set of those growing up the concrete jungle of South Central L.A. This powerful account of the triumph of the human spirit over insurmountable odds brings the reader into the daily battles for survival. His story starts at the beginning of his gang life (being initiated at age 11), moves through his teen years (mostly spent in various correctional facilities) and ends up with his transformation in a member of the New Afrikan Independence Movement.    When Kody Scott was 6 years old, the gang wars started in Los Angeles. It started out as a battle between the Crips and the Bloods, but by the late 70's and continuing today, the biggest killer of Crips is other Crips. The Crip Nation was divided into different divisions, which Monster compares to the U.S. Army. "For instance, one who is in the army may belong to the F... Monster: The Autobiography of an L.A. Gang Member Essay -- Biography B Monster: The Autobiography of an L.A. Gang Member    "Where I came from, in order to be down you had to be 'in'" (Shakur, 226). This quote, taken from Sanyika Shakur's (aka Monster Kody Scott) Monster: The Autobiography of an L.A. Gang Member relates the mind set of those growing up the concrete jungle of South Central L.A. This powerful account of the triumph of the human spirit over insurmountable odds brings the reader into the daily battles for survival. His story starts at the beginning of his gang life (being initiated at age 11), moves through his teen years (mostly spent in various correctional facilities) and ends up with his transformation in a member of the New Afrikan Independence Movement.    When Kody Scott was 6 years old, the gang wars started in Los Angeles. It started out as a battle between the Crips and the Bloods, but by the late 70's and continuing today, the biggest killer of Crips is other Crips. The Crip Nation was divided into different divisions, which Monster compares to the U.S. Army. "For instance, one who is in the army may belong to the F...

deer :: essays research papers

  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The fur of the whitetail deer is a grayish color in the winter then more red comes out during the summer. Only the bucks have antlers. Young males begin to grow their antlers in the spring, then towards the fall the skin on their antlers begins to deteriorate. The velvet is very itchy and the young male will rub its new antlers on anything possible. The average height of the deer is between 3 – 3.5 ft. Their tail length is about 30 cm. in length. Their weight ranges from 100 – 350 pounds.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Bucks are usually solitary but sometimes they may travel in a small group. Deer usually herd together during winter months to conserve energy. Their territory is usually small depending on the food supply. If there is a good food source in a certain area, the deer will have a smaller home range. More traveling is needed if the food source is less abundant. In eastern forests, buds and twigs of maple, sassafras, poplar, aspen, and birch are consumed, as well as many shrubs. In the desert areas, plants such as huajillo brush, yucca, prickly pear cactus, comal, ratama, and various tough shrubs may be the deer’s main diet components. Conifers are often utilized in winter when other foods are scarce. They are crepuscular animals, feeding mainly from before dawn until several hours after, and again from late afternoon until dusk.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Most white-tailed deer mate after their second year, especially males. Females have been found to mate as early as seven months. Bucks are polygamous although they may form an attachment and stay with a single doe for several days or even weeks until she reaches oestrus. Mating occurs from October to December and gestation is approximately 6 and a half months. In her first breeding, a female generally has one fawn, but 2 per litter are born in subse2quent years. Fawns are able to walk at birth and nibble on vegetation only a few days later. They are weaned at approximately six weeks. Life span in the wild is about 10 years, but whitetail deer have lived up to 20 years in captivity.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  They are able to live in a variety of terrestrial habitats, from the big woods of northern Maine to the deep saw grass and hammock swamps of Florida. They also inhabit farmlands, brushy areas and such desolate areas of the west such as the cactus and thornbrush deserts of southern Texas and Mexico.

What Activities and Hobbies Do You Pursue Outside of Work?

Outside of work, I participate in a variety of activities and hobbies. These activities provide me with the opportunity to learn, take on challenges, and have fun. In addition, I believe my hobbies allow for relaxation and inner growth.I enjoy learning new information through reading, surfing the Internet, watching television, and shopping. From the breaking news in Iraq to the latest gift catalog from World Vision, the Internet has become one of my major resources to get updates on the world. My most recent interest is in learning HTML code to enhance my newly created web page on Aloha Tower Marketplace with flash and graphics.Shopping is another activity that I frequently do outside of work. To most people, shopping is a routine and necessary activity that involves going to the supermarket for dinner, buying a new sweater at Macy’s for the upcoming winter, or picking up the latest Harry Potter book in Barnes & Noble for a nephew’s birthday.To me, however, shopping is a pleasurable activity, as well as a chance to observe market trends. To a marketer for a shopping mall, understanding the competition is very important.I also like to watch stage shows or go to the movies on the weekends. My favorite stage show is â€Å"Once Upon One Time,† a musical written in Pidgin by a local playwright, Lisa Matsumoto. It is a fusion of many famous tales of Hawaiian culture and life.From various shows, I have learned to appreciate the incredible art of theater and recognize the efforts in place to protect Hawaiian culture. I prefer stage shows to movie productions because the stage leaves more to the imagination and the audience can interpret the themes.Along with indoor activities, I like to spend time outdoors when my schedule allows. I regularly challenge my fear of heights by hiking to the peaks of mountains to enjoy the fresh air and terrific scenery. Whether choosing a hobby or a job, my goal is always self-improvement, the same as my goals in life .

Cost Reduction Strategy The WritePass Journal

Cost Reduction Strategy Introduction Cost Reduction Strategy ). Horizontal integration Supermarkets have economies of scope when they offer a variety of products or services that do not comprise the usual basic goods and services available in supermarket stores (Abernathy et al, 2000). Such products and services may include ready cooked meals, financial services (such as retail banking), fuel stations, clothing and furniture, among other diverse provisions through a single service infrastructure, the store. These not only meet today’s busy shopper’s preference for a one-stop shop, but also lead to the provision of a complementary variety of products concentrated on the supermarkets core competence (Hines et al, 2004). This results in the distribution of costs over a wide and diverse range of products resulting in overall savings. The expansion of stores such as Morrisons, Tesco and Sainsbury into various service-provision segments (demand-driven diversification) so as to appeal to the modern consumer illustrates this strategy (Morrisons, 2012). A supermarket chain may also pursue related diversification building upon and extending existing capability, resources or expertise to achieve greater competitiveness. Cost savings are enabled when a business transfers expertise in one business to a new business, as well as in the businesses sharing operational skills and know-how, facilities, equipment or other existing assets including intangible assets such as corporate core competence (Handï ¬ eld and Nichols, 2002). This can be illustrated by the entry of supermarket chains such as Morrisons, Tesco and Sainsbury into the convenience store segment in pursuit of customer preference for smaller stores and small frequent shopping trends. This venture is in order to supplement waning revenues of larger stores (Morrisons, 2012). Outsourcing The progress of the general-purpose technology such as information technology (IT) enables the reduction of market transaction costs which leads to increased capacity for outsourcing (Abernathy et al, 2000). Outsourcing for a supermarket chain may entail contracting suppliers to undertake time-consuming and logistically challenging tasks such as warehousing and distribution, as well as new services such as the ready-cooked food segments. Such a strategy is necessitated if the existing mode of in-house performance of these tasks is more costly than obtaining it through market transactions or some form of long term contractual relationship (Hines et al, 2004). Efficiency is thereby enhanced in the conduct of the supermarket’s core activities, reducing costs associated with outsourced tasks and enhancing potential revenues increases. Product or service redesign Many supermarket chains are seeking to tap into new segments such as the online marketplace not only to meet customer preferences but also to reduce costs associated with its usual processes (Abernathy et al, 2000). In this customers order for product items which are then sent to their stated locations cutting off a number of processes that were hitherto undertaken thereby enabling significant savings. Morrisons, Tesco and Sainsbury, among other supermarket chains are pursuing such new market segments in pursuit of enhanced competitiveness and customer preference (Morrisons, 2012). Airline We consider an airline whose business provides basic services of passenger travel including scheduling, preparation and planning for flights, check-in, actual flight to destinations, and customer service. Pursuit of scope economics, outsourcing and product or service redesign which are the cost reduction methods focused upon in this paper are herein discussed with regard to an airline business. Economies of scope In this regard, vertical and horizontal integration mechanisms are discussed outlining their contribution to cost reduction. Vertical integration Vertical integration for an airline may entail the uptake of activities beyond its usual scope such as ticketing commonly undertaken by local service providers along its supply chain. Progress into such fronts is greatly enhanced by developments in internet technologies which enable customers to book flights, buy and print out tickets online, reducing the need for staff and investment on facilities dedicated to this task (Abernathy et al, 2000). This removes the costs of commissions paid out to the service providers as well as related organizational costs resulting in cost savings and greater efficiency. Horizontal integration To achieve economies of scope and thereby reductions in cost, an airline might venture into the cargo segment, customizing some of its existing planes for this purpose and delegating some staff under its organizational structure to run processes associated with cargo handling and transport. Through this related diversification of operations, the firm is able to build upon or extend its existing capability, resources or areas of expertise to achieve greater competitiveness (Handï ¬ eld and Nichols, 2002). An airline could also pursue mergers or scope acquisitions, to enhance or extend its product portfolio. This is a common trend in the industry with airlines frequently collaborating and coordinating their activities to achieve efficiency gains as well as to widen their geographical markets, reaching to routes across the globe and specific markets served by partner airlines which might not be feasible for it as a single entity (VBA, 2011). It has also become a common trend for airlines to invest in hotels and other facilities in the hospitality industry so as to tap onto an existing demand, as well as to reduce their costs in cases of delays and other unforeseen circumstances which usually result in added costs for the airline. This strategy turns the airlines previous challenges into strengths, as well as providing a revenue stream from related divestiture. Horizontal integration can be illustrated by Virgin airlines in its strategic alliances with Etihad Airways and Delta Air Lines which enhance its reach to the TransPacific Los Angeles route and the Abu Dhabi route, its gateway to Europe, Africa and the Middle East, with the collaboration benefiting all the partner airlines (VBA, 2011). Outsourcing Outsourcing for an airline is undertaken to streamline operations and enhance service quality (Wynstra et al., 2001). Tasks such as aircraft maintenance and ground support, as well as food processing for service on-board are labour-intensive and specialized tasks that can be outsourced if costs of contracting them are favourable. This would enable the airline to enhance focus on customer service and operations related to flight reducing overheads and other cost requirements. An example is Navitaire, a service supplier for airlines, which offers an extensive global distribution suite enabling low-cost reservations which has enabled the improvement of profitability especially among the low-cost airlines using the service, lower operational and distribution costs   and generation of ancillary revenues (Abernathy et al, 2000). Product/service redesign To enhanced service offerings in the competitive business environment and, as well, to rein in on rising costs, it is incumbent upon airline companies to conduct frequent network reviews, fleet realignments, operational integration so as to ensure that they remain profitable, effective and efficient in their processes. The company in the redesign and realignment should be bold enough to undertake thought-out exit from the non-profitable routes lowering its liabilities and costs. An example is Virgin Australia’s endeavour at restructuring in 2011 following its poor performance evident in its 2010 financial results (VBA, 2011). Conclusion For sustainability, the aim of the cost-cutting strategy is to maximize efficiency without compromising growth potential. To achieve this, companies need to identify core competencies upon which focus is enhanced and efficiency improved, with the non-core functions being trimmed and consolidated to achieve reduction in unnecessary costs (Hines et al, 2004). Such savings can be reinvested in critical assets, enhancing core competencies and thereby improving overall efficiency. References Abernathy, F., J., Dunlop, and J., Hammond, 2000. â€Å"Retailing and supply chains in the information age.† In: Technology in Society, Vol. 22, pp. 5-31. Campbell, A., 1992. Building Core Skills. In: Andrew Campbell and Kathleen Luchs: Strategic Synergy. London: Butterworth Heinemann. Handï ¬ eld, R., and E., Nichols, 2002. Supply Chain Redesign: Transforming Supply Chains into Integrated Value Systems. Financial Times. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ. Hill, M., R., Ireland, and R.., Hoskisson, 2001. Strategic Management: Competitiveness and Globalization. Fourth Edition. South-Western College Publishing, Hines, P., M., Holweg, and N., Rich, 2004. â€Å"Learning to evolve: a review of contemporary lean thinking.† In: International Journal of Operations Production Management, Vol. 24 No. 10, pp. 994-1012. Morrisons, 2012. Food with thought: Corporate responsibility review 2011/12. Wm Morrisons Supermarkets PLC. Sanchez, R., 2000. â€Å"Modular architectures, knowledge assets and organizational learning: new management processes for product creation.† In: International Journal of Technology Management, Vol. 19, No 6. Salvador, F., C., Forza, and M., Rungtusanatham, 2002. â€Å"Modularity, product variety, production volume, and component sourcing: theorizing beyond generic prescriptions.† In: Journal of Operations Management, Vol. 20, pp. 549-75. Silverman, B., 1999. â€Å"Technological resources and the direction of corporate diversification: Toward an integration of the Resource-Based View and Transaction Cost Economics.† In: Management Science, 45 (8), 1109–1124. VBA financial report, 2011. Virgin Australia group of companies. 30th June. Viewed from: virginaustralia.com/au/en/about-us/media/2011/VA-FY11-ASX/ Womack, J., and D., Jones, 2003. Lean Thinking, 2nd ed., Free Press Business, London. Wynstra, F., A., Weele, and M., Weggemann, 2001. â€Å"Managing supplier involvement in product development: three critical issues.† In: European Management Journal, Vol. 19 No. 2, pp. 157-66. Hampson, , 1999. â€Å"Lean Production and the Toyota Production System: the Case of the Forgotten Production Concepts.† In: Economics and Industrial Democracy, Volume 20: 369-391

Maurice Ravel essays

Maurice Ravel essays Maurice Ravel was born in Ciboure, March 7, 1875. His father's background was Swiss and his mothers was Basque, but he was brought up in Paris. Here he studied at the Conservatoire from approximately 1889 to 1895, returning in 1897 to study further with Faure and Gedalge. Ravel never married, but he did have several long-running relationships. He was also known to frequent the bordellos of Paris. During his schooling in Paris, Ravel joined with a number of innovative young composers who referred to themselves as the "Apaches" because of their wild abandon. The group was well known for its drunken revelry. In 1893, he met Chabrier and Satie, both who were influential to his future career as a musician. Ravel was also highly influenced from music around the world including American Jazz, Asian music, and traditional folk songs from across Europe. Ravel was not religious and was probably an atheist. He disliked the openly religious themes of other composers, such as Wagner, and instead preferred to look to classical mythology for inspiration. A decade later he was a well-known composer, at least of songs and piano pieces, working with great care he could imitate a composer such as Lisztian bravura, or a style like Renaissance calm. During the next decade, when he was in his thirties, he was producing most of his works. There was a rivalry with Debussy and some arguments about priority in musical discoveries, but Ravel's taste in music was clearly different from any other composers work, as well as the grand virtuosity of much of his piano music from this period. Many of Ravels works were known to show his fascination with things temporally or geographically distant, or the imagination of childhood, as in Ma mre l'oye. "From childhood he had a particular liking for minute objects, miniatures, the tiny world of figurines, little things that worked by clockwork, mechanical birds 'whose hea ...